rcr新文：助力绿色数字化—来自中国5g网络基础设施的证据
5g基站，图源华为2021年度报告，侵删
文章导读
本文着眼于热点话题，以中国5g基站的能耗和碳排放为例对数字化技术发展的能耗和排放进行了评估和预测。
文章首先对中国5g技术的发展阶段进行了回顾和总结，计算了5g基站的耗电和碳排放，并对其进行了lmdi分解分析，在此基础上对5g基站的耗电和碳排放进行了预测。
本文研究对象的选择新意十足且切合当下热点。数字化及相关技术是信息化时代社会和科技发展的关键环节，与此同时，在气候变化背景之下，数字化的发展如何配合“碳达峰”“碳中和”目标的实现也是实现其可持续发展的关键问题。本文对5g基站能耗和排放的计算和预测为相关领域的可持续发展研究提供了参考和依据。
文章摘要
本文首先估算了2015年至2020年我国通信基站的二氧化碳排放量，并将其变化分解到终端需求、数据流量、能源强度和排放因子四个驱动因素上。其中，数据流量变化是导致二氧化碳排放增加的主导因素；技术进步引致的能源强度下降大大降低了二氧化碳的排放量。在此基础上，本文进一步预测了2025年5g技术应用更加成熟时，我国通信基站的电力消耗和二氧化碳排放。情景分析结果表明，降低能源强度的政策有望遏制电力需求和缓解碳排放；在某些技术路径下，通信基站的电力需求和二氧化碳排放有可能在2024年达到峰值。本研究表明，促进技术升级、能源管理和技术应用以获得潜在效率，以及提高先进数字技术的渗透率，将是实现绿色数字化的有效措施。
原文摘要
while digitalization is changing the world, its impact on energy demand and carbon emission has been multi-faceted. this study analyzes the sustainability challenges brought about by digital technology, represented by 5g technology applications in china. we first estimate the co2 emission results from the base stations and decompose the changes into four effects: terminal demand, data traffic, energy intensity, and emission factor. data traffic is the dominant factor contributing to increasing co2 emissions. the energy intensity decrease induced by technological advances significantly reduces the co2 emissions. the effects of terminal demand and emission factor are negligible. we further project power consumption and co2 emissions with mobile network upgrading to 5g in 2025. the scenario analysis shows that policies to reduce energy intensity are expected to curb power demand and mitigate carbon emissions. under certain technology pathways, it is possible to peak electricity demand and associated co2 emissions in 2024. our analysis suggests that promoting technology upgrading, energy management, and technology applications to obtain potential efficiency, as well as increasing penetration of advanced digital technology, would be effective measures towards green digitalization.